The Bitcoin bull market is just going through the same 3 steps it has taken in its previous bull markets.
According to Steve Courtney, an experienced trader from CryptoCrewUniversity, Bitcoin is currently following the pattern of a typical bull market and is in stage one. Courtney highlights that Bitcoin is currently holding above the 200-week moving average, which is a positive sign. Even if it comes down to test it, which would take it to around $27,000, it should be fine as long as the 200-week moving average holds steady.
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Bitcoin bull phase 1 repeating - good. The trader is closely monitoring the relative strength indicator (RSI) to ensure that Bitcoin maintains a strong base structure above the mid level. On the weekly time frame, support can be found at the 51 level, which is crucial according to Courtney. If Bitcoin falls below this level, it could face significant challenges.
The Stochastic RSI, which measures momentum, is also a key indicator for Courtney. He notes that every six months there is a cross on the Stochastic RSI, and each of these crosses has led to the largest moves for Bitcoin. The previous cross saw Bitcoin rally from about $25,000 to just under $32,000, before falling to its current level of around $29,000.
Regarding the three steps, Courtney explains that step number 1 is triggered by the Pi Cycle. A cross up for this indicator always leads to a huge rally, which is then met by resistance that is not broken for quite some period of time.
However, Courtney cautions that this part of the bull market may not be smooth sailing. If the price does not hold above the red line, it will always fall to the green, leading to a significant drop in price. This would result in an extended phase 1, but Bitcoin would still be in a bull market unless it falls below the green line.
For his second step, Courtney uses the Dynamic Traders Index to determine when Bitcoin moves into phase 2 of the bull market. He notes that this indicator is not showing that we are near phase 2 of the bull market yet.
According to Courtney, phase 2 is when the price holds support above the resistance at $30,000 (phase 1) and then consolidates for many months. A breakout and consolidation above this would lead to stage 3 and significant increases in price action until the top of this particular bull market is reached.
Finally, Courtney is of the opinion that Bitcoin may not reach $100,000 due to reducing gains in each successive bull market, which is contrary to the view of most other analysts. However, time will prove him right or wrong.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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